In The Crease

Playoff notebook

Since I’ve failed to blog with any regularity, I put together a smorgasbord of off-ice thoughts through two rounds:

-Is it just me or does Madison Square Garden have the most pathetic horn in the entire NHL? It leaves me thinking, “Honey, the buns are ready!” at the end of each period.

-I’ve never liked Ray Emery as a player, but his off-ice antics are annoying, too:

“I’m not a big fan of Buffalo,” Emery said early this week. “There’s not a lot to do on days off.” ...

“He’ll find things to do,” Ruff said with a laugh. “Rent a Hummer truck, go for a ride. Drive around a little bit.” -TBN

Emery had the latest word Wednesday when asked if he'd have anything to say to Ruff if he saw him on the road - Emery quipped he'd greet him with a little ‘nudge.’ ” –CP

Don’t worry, Ray. WIVB has called fans to help him find something to keep him busy in Western New York. The best suggestions so far? “Go to a driving school!” and “Have you ever heard of a little place called Niagara Falls? I'm sure that they can find a barrel big enough to fit your ego.”

-Most hockey players have superstitions, but I doubt most involve a newspaper’s beat reporter:

"Ales Kotalik just one day asked me how my coffee was, I said it was delicious and we left at that. Then that night he scored two goals," said [TBN's Tim] Graham.

"I see him the next day and he says 'Timmy how's the coffee?' And as soon as he asked me that, I knew what he was talking about, and I said it was delicious and he kind of laughed about it and then went out and had a goal and an assist."

Says Kotalik, "It was always when he was holding a Dunkin' Donuts coffee that I had a good game, so I kind of told him make sure you have it before every game."

Check out the video here.

-Yes, Buffalo is crazy for the playoffs:

“I think [Sabres] fever is hot when I drive by the Catholic church near my house, and it doesn’t list the Mass times or the inspirational message,” Sabres public relations director Michael M. Gilbert said. “It says, ‘Go Sabres.’ ” –TBN

I also like the “Welcome to Pominville” sign on Rt. 33.

-Oh, and it’s not just Buffalo. It’s also Buffalo’s collection of fans around the globe. I’m listening to WGR right now, and people have called in everywhere from England to South Africa. Especially here in Detroit, people complain about those “late” west coast games. What if you’re a Sabres fan living across the ocean where the games don’t START until 1 a.m.? Now that’s dedication!

-Even the New York Times is taking notice of Buffalo's obsession:

"On Versus, Buffalo has the highest ratings and the most viewers. 'The Buffalo fans are a force of nature,' said Gavin Harvey, the president of Versus. 'We crushed ‘American Idol’ up there.'

In Game 4, Buffalo had a 24.8 rating from Versus, accounting for 158,000 households. Meanwhile, New York did a 1.5, the highest ever for a hockey game on Versus in that market. In Detroit, which appropriated the nickname Hockeytown in 1996, then backed it up by selling out 452 consecutive home games and winning the Stanley Cup three times, has failed to sell out its first five playoff home games this year. That has caused some hand-wringing in the Motor City, but it may be premature to cede top status to Buffalo and the Sabres."

-I’m begging Larry Quinn: Please get rid of the white pom pons! Doesn't he realize home teams wear COLOR now? And am I the only one that thinks HSBC is less enthusiastic about pom pons than other hockey-crazed cities?

-It’s no secret that Hockeytown has failed to sell out any of its playoff games. Living in Detroit, I have to chuck it up to the economy. With such a large corporate season ticket base and the decimation of the auto industry, businesses and its employees don’t have the disposable income to spend on Red Wings tickets, which are much higher than Pistons playoff tickets or the hottest ticket in town — the Detroit Tigers. Free Press columnist (and former Michigan Daily EIC) Michael Rosenberg wrote about the struggle to sell out:

“I don't blame people for staying home. People can spend their money however they'd like. It is just too bad that Mike Ilitch has chosen to alienate his fan base like this, by acting like the economy is still thriving and the Wings are still the only winner in town.

In the last few years, we have seen the state unemployment rate rise, the Pistons become one of the best franchises in sports, the Tigers make the World Series, Steve Yzerman retire and the Wings' payroll drop from almost $78 million in 2004 to $44 million this year. Yet the Wings expect fans to open the checkbook as they did in 2002.”

-Isn’t it funny how Ryan Miller sounds more and more like Chris Drury in his interviews? “It’s just a hockey game, it doesn’t matter who the opponent it is, I’m just focused on the game…”

-I was listening to the "60s on 6" channel on XM Radio this past Tuesday while driving to work. A Sabres fan called up, and he requested  "A Wonderful Dream" by The Majors, in honor of the Senators matchup. Pretty sweet.

-Best quote of the playoffs thus far, courtesy of TBN columnist Bucky Gleason: “Drury’s heart never skips a beat when everybody else is ready to drop dead.” Of course, it was in reference to Drury’s game-tying goal with 7.7 second remaining in Game Five against the Rangers. Rick Jeanneret’s call was great, too: “Who else? Who else?”

Playoff predictions: Round 1

They're back. I'm not ready. But it's time.

Eastern Conference
(1) BUFFALO Sabres vs. (8) NEW YORK Islanders
Series Breakdown
Buffalo (113 pts, 53-22-7), New York (92 pts, 40-30-12)
Season series: Sabres (3-1)
Let’s face it — Buffalo has been the number one team in the league for the majority of the regular season, playing a large chunk of that time with an AHL-laden roster. Now they’re completely healthy, minus Paul Gaustad. They shouldn’t have trouble dealing with an Islanders team that stumbled into the playoffs on the last day of the regular season. The only way that I even see the Isles grabbing a game in this series is a miraculous comeback from Rick DiPietro, or if New York can draw Buffalo into a special teams game (and Tim Connolly’s return somehow has absolutely no affect on the power play). That’s a lot of if’s just to win a game. Buffalo should have this series easy.
Pick: Buffalo in 5

(2) NEW JERSEY Devils vs. (7) TAMPA BAY Lightning
Series Breakdown
New Jersey (107 pts, 49-24-9), Tampa Bay (93 pts, 44-33-5)
Season series: Tied (2-2)
Barring some crazy injury to Martin Brodeur, the Devils have a clear edge in this series. Tampa Bay has been up and down all season, while this has been one of Brodeur’s best — and maybe Hart-worthy — seasons. Lou Lamoriello’s head games are nothing new, so I don’t think the coaching change will throw the Devils off. Also, what’s made the Devils remarkable is how their defensemen, especially Brad Lukowich and Colin White, have really adjusted their game to become effective in the new NHL. Tampa Bay? No goaltending. Simple.
Pick: New Jersey in 4

(3) ATLANTA Thrashers vs. (6) NEW YORK Rangers
Series Breakdown
Atlanta (97 pts, 43-28-11), New York (94 pts, 42-30-10)
Season series: Thrashers (3-1)
Without a doubt, this is the series I’m least interested in, even though the league is probably very interested (just for TV ratings sake). While Kari Lehtonen has the ability to steal games on his own, I think New York’s offense combined with Henrik Lundqvist’s goaltending should be able to stop the Southern boys — even if it takes a while to do so.
Pick: New York in 6

(4) OTTAWA Senators vs. (5) PITTSBURGH Penguins
Series Breakdown
Ottawa (105 pts, 48-25-9), Pittsburgh (105 pts, 47-24-11)
Season series: Penguins (3-1)
This series has the potential to be the most exciting of the first round, emphasis on potential. Both teams favor an end-to-end style and have great, young offensive talent up front (think Dany Heatly, Sidney Crosby, Jason Spezza, Evgeni Malkin). And while Ottawa may be ranked fourth, its been playing its best hockey in the second half, much like Pittsburgh. But the playoffs are entirely different. You can remind Ottawa of playoff years past (see: Buffalo) with early series wins. Or you can remind Pittsburgh that they’ve never been here. I think one of the NBC commentators said it best: “Ottawa’s bad experience is better than Pittsburgh’s none.” Maybe that’s true, but Ottawa’s lack of playoff success and the possibility of shaky goaltending should balance out Pittsburgh’s youthful naivety of playing in the postseason and make for a long series.
Pick: Pittsburgh in 7

Western Conference
(1) DETROIT Red Wings vs. (8) CALGARY Flames
Series Breakdown
Detroit (113 pts, 50-19-13), Calgary (105 pts, 43-29-10)
Season series: Tied (2-2)
Will the Red Wings be again haunted by Alberta? Perhaps. And it will be tough for Detroit, who could be without Henrik Zetterberg and Niklas Kronwall. However, this Red Wings team is different than last season; there’s no more reliance on a crippled Steve Yzerman or worn-out-his-welcome Brendan Shanahan. Now there’s Todd Bertuzzi (to protect seven-year Pavel Datsyuk) and Dominik Hasek getting shutouts left and right. The Flames, much like the Islanders, stumbled their way into the playoffs after a late surge by the Avalanche. They have the offense, the defense, and the goaltending — but will they have it away from the Saddledome? And can they beat the Dominator? More questions than answers make this a longer series, but it should result in Detroit’s favor.
Pick: Detroit in 6

(2) ANAHEIM Ducks vs. (7) MINNESOTA Wild
Series Breakdown
Carolina (110 pts, 48-20-14), Buffalo (114 pts, 48-26-8)
Season series: Tied (2-2)
This has the possibility to be the most boring first-round series. By far. I haven’t been able to get into either of these teams this year. Anaheim has its dynamic duo on defense, Scott Niedermeyer and Chris Pronger, and always has Teemu Selanne. But the Wild have possibly the best coach in the playoffs, Jacques Lemaire. Well, I know I won’t be watching that much, but I’m leaning toward Anaheim here based on personnel.
Pick: Anaheim in 6

(3) VANCOUVER Canucks vs. (6) DALLAS Stars
Series Breakdown
Vancouver (105 pts, 49-26-7), Dallas (107 pts, 50-25-7)
Season series: Tied (2-2)
One of the best parts of the first round is the chance to see Roberto Luongo fight for the Stanley Cup for the first time. Night in and out, Luongo backstopped the Canucks to victory and made them a playoff team once again. And who doesn’t love Alain Vigneault? With Dallas, it’s always about Marty Turco: he has the great regular season numbers, and even NCAA championships, but he’s never had his A-game in the NHL’s second season. I’m not a believer that the Stars will shine.
Pick: Vancouver in 5

(4) NASHVILLE Predators vs. (5) SAN JOSE Sharks
Series Breakdown
Nashville (110 pts, 51-23-8), San Jose (107 pts, 51-26-5)
Season series: Predators (3-1)
If Pittsburgh vs. Ottawa is the most exciting series in the East, Nashville vs. San Jose definitely gets the billing in the West. From an offensive standpoint, both teams bring it in waves: Paul Kariya, Peter Forsberg, Joe Thornton, Patrick Marleau. Nashville narrowly missed winning the Western Conference. While neither of these teams deserves a first-round exit, I think the goaltending tandem of Evgeni Nabokov and Vesa Toskala is the difference in this series.
Pick: San Jose in 6

You don't know Jack (yet)

I wish I were in Los Angeles tonight. While it's starting to feel like playoff weather here in Ann Arbor, Michigan's finest hockey player isn't gearing up for the Frozen Four as the Yost faithful had hoped. Instead, Jack Johnson is making his debut tonight for the Kings and foregoing his final two years of college hockey.

Not that I blame him. It's not an understatement to say Johnson is the biggest thing to happen to Kings hockey since Wayne Gretzky departed Edmonton for the California sun. There's the t-shirts (Kill Jack Kill and JMFJ -- take a wild guess what that means). And there's the endless loop of videos on YouTube, a reel of hope for playoff-less fans:

LAK fans, you really don't know what you're getting into. After the Al Montoyas and Eric Nystroms left Michigan, Johnson was the face of Michigan hockey. He embodies what hockey markerters crave most -- scoring, hitting, and charisma to boot. And he's kind of an asshole, but in an adorable way. Piss him off? Canadian fans tried. He loves that; it just gives him more reason to punish your team on the ice.

A few quick ones about JMFJ:

• Last season, in a game up at Michigan State's Munn Ice Arena, Johnson was hit near the Spartan bench. As he came crashing down, his stick flung up and almost took off the heads of a few Spartans,  including head coach Rick Comley. Careless use? Or just a little Jack for you?
• In a 4-0 blanking of Alaska Fairbanks last season at Yost, Johnson got into a team-wide tussel which landed five Wolverines in the penalty box with less than minute to go in the game. But he didn't just sit in the penalty box; he led his teammates in playing tic-tac-toe through the dust on the glass, and wrote "Go Blue."
• Scared of the hitting? That smirk? How about that shot? Here, Johnson almost ripped the head off of Boston College's goaltender with an absolute rocket.

• I also won't soon forget his heroics against Sweden in the World Junior Championships this year. The U.S. faced elimination going into the last round robin game against Sweden, and gave up a game-tying goal with just 14 seconds remaining in the third. Who made sure the U.S. didn't go home empty-handed? Jack. He scored a power play tally in overtime to allow the U.S. to continue on and eventually take home the bronze medal.
• It's not just about Jack, either. It's the whole Johnson family that took over Yost for two years. Who can miss younger brother Kenny, who seemed too preoccupied with running up and down the bleachers at Yost in a mini Jack jersey to even notice his brother playing on the ice. And fans didn't leave their seats in the second intermission. When the Pep Band blasted the Blue Brothers theme, Jack Sr. got his groove on, eliciting chants of 'Mr. Johnson, Mr. Johnson' from the student section. Wonder if that will become a Staples Center tradition...

Is he ready for the NHL? Yes. His skills are obviously there, and he doesn't take the excessive penalties that he did freshman year. He's just itching to make a difference. And tonight's the first time we get to watch if he can do it in Hollywood.

Conspiracy theories

I'm not one of those fans panicking, whining about how Teppo Numminen's age is finally showing or how Ryan Miller is slumping. I'm too busy wondering how a team that should have been reinvigorated by the return of its captain, Chris Drury, had two of its most pathetic outings of the season in a row this week.

This is the same team that had captured 23 of their last possible 28 points without a third of its lineup. They didn't have Max Afinogenov, Tim Connolly, Ales Kotalik, and then lost Chris Drury to a vicious Chris Neil hit. The team looked more like the Rochester Americans than the Buffalo Sabres, but they managed to pile of up the points and score like crazy. Last week, the Sabres scored 17 goals in three games. And now, just three goals in two games.

But it wasn't just the lack of finish. Buffalo's looked a little uninspired. Bucky Gleason in today's TBN:

"Here’s a word that hasn’t been tossed around in a few years: boring. Looking for another? Sloppy. Another? Ugly. If you didn’t know any better Friday night, you would have thought the Buffalo Sabres revisited the forgettable 2002-03 season rather than being energized by starting back-to-back home games for the first time in eight years."

The team looked disorganized, like a turnover machine, and couldn't make the passes that make them the most dangerous offensive team in the league.

Even more puzzling was Lindy Ruff's decision to start Miller Friday night against the Minnesota Wild. All week, it seemed Ruff had Ty Conklin penciled in for his first start with his new team. But suddenly, Friday came and Miller, who has a history of getting tired, got the nod for his 11th straight appearance. Tonight, Miller has to play against New Jersey. The Devils are just three points behind the Sabres for first overall in the Eastern Conference. And now, the Sabres have dropped to third overall in the league behind Detroit and Nashville.

The mixture of no Conklin and Drury's return doesn't equal up to what's happened on the ice. I almost wonder if Ruff and the team know something the fans don't. Are Afinogenov and Connolly still coming back eventually? Or has there been some injury news the team is hiding from the media? This week, it came out that Connolly still isn't improving:

"Connolly’s leg, however, still hurts. He hasn’t been on the ice and nobody knows when he will be. Sabres coach Lindy Ruff has figured Connolly will need six weeks to get into game shape. Four weeks remain in the regular season.

"When you look at a week to 10 days, that wasn’t going to be that big of a setback," Ruff said after Thursday morning’s practice in HSBC Arena. “When you go beyond that, it’s a setback. . . . We were making good progress. Right now, we’re not making any progress." ' (TBN, 3/9/07)

So call me crazy, but maybe the team knows something we don't. This is still the same team that went on the hot streak, that shocked the league with its NHL-leading play with and AHL-looking roster. It's gotta be a problem between their ears. I just hope that I'm wrong; maybe it's just a freak occurrence. And I still can't explain the Miller start on Friday. Let's just hope we won't be kept wondering after tonight.

Emotions lost in the new NHL economics

As new Islander Ryan Smyth took the ice tonight, I didn't feel the urge to join the ovation at Nassau Coliseum. I didn't feel that bad for Smyth, either, who cried his way out of Edmonton yesterday. Lost in the equation were the Edmonton fans. These were the fans who watched their eighth-seed team get all the way to the Finals last season only to lose Dwayne Roloson to injury in Game One, rally from a 3-1 series deficit, and fall short in Game Seven. Follow that up by losing both Micheal Peca and Chris Pronger (and a few more for good measure) in the offseason, and then topped by a shocking deadline deal that sent Oiler-lifer Smyth east. ESPN's Damien Cox writes about Edmonton's plight:

"They believed somehow it was the inalienable right of every one of the 30 franchises to identify one or more key players and then be able to retain the services of those players. In Edmonton, they really believed that. So they supported the owners' lockout of the NHL Players' Association and even gave NHL commissioner Gary Bettman an ovation when he came to town. ...

So all the promises of the "new economic order" captivated the imagination of Edmonton fans, maybe more than fans anywhere else. It would be an even playing field again. The big, dirty cities like New York and Philadelphia and Toronto wouldn't be able to steal all the good Oilers players away, and the self-proclaimed "City of Champions" would be great again."

As a Sabres fan, I can vouch that I felt the cap would bring this too. And so far, it's been great for Buffalo, except that it might prevent them from keeping both Chris Drury and Daniel Briere around after this season.

But Smyth's situation reminds me more of a former Sabres' contract fight -- Michael Peca. Well, pretty much every sob-story-negotiation does. But the facts are similar in this case. Agent Don Meehan represent the player. (I swear he drives evil in to them...) The team and the player are within $100,000s of each other. Both sides are stuck in concrete, not willing to budge. The city is head-over-heels in love with the guy, as he is the heart of the team. And in the end, the fans end up losing. Big time.

I was moved by Smyth's statement as he departed Edmonton. The tears, the emotions... they seemed genuine. But what I don't get -- in both Peca and Smyth's case -- is why it came to this. Why couldn't either of them take a slight hometown discount? Why did negotiations escalate to the point where both sides were completely irrational and unreasonable? Chalk it up to good old human nature. With both sides so entangled in their positions, they completely forgot about the problem and therefore couldn't possibly find a resolution.

In professional sports, it's cold, hard economics that fans are forced to accept. But there's always the hope that the next heart-and-soul player is coming. Although the Peca debacle hurt for a long time, Tim Connolly turned out to be more than just a pretty face and a washed-up juniors star. And Daniel Briere was picked up for a song. It happens. And, if Smyth keeps his words, the Stanley Cup will come back to Edmonton, anyway:

"I want to thank them [the Islanders] for this. I'm going to go there and do my best to make the playoffs and win that cup so I can bring it down here to Edmonton because that's where my heart is."

All I ask is the same thing I asked six years ago -- if this is where your heart is, why leave?

It was all about bringing Timmy back

Funny how today ended up being about yesterday. About 10 months ago, to be exact.

Buffalo had just won one of the most thrilling games in NHL history when Chris Drury's OT winner clinched a 7-6 decision over the Ottawa Senators in Game One, Round Two.

And while the Sabres would end the series in five games, one of the most lasting effects of the playoffs happened in the first minute of Game Two. Ottawa's Peter Schaefer demolished Tim Connolly, who made the mistake of cutting through the ice with his head down. Connolly hasn't played since, suffering the second concussion of his Sabres career.

It seemed Connolly would make a miracle comeback in the new year, but a stress fracture has kept him off the ice. That was Feb. 13. He was projected to return to practice 7-10 days later. But Darcy Regier and company still believe. So much so that everything swirling around today's Trade Deadline rested on the fact that their rising star would return before the end of the season, and this meant that regardless of future injuries or acquisitions, Regier had to free up cap room. In comes second round draft pick, out goes Marty Biron. Simple as that.

This all started with Gary Bettman telling Darcy Regier that Connolly had to come back by the end of the regular season or he was ineligible for the first round of the playoffs. And with Daniel Paille eating up cap money while on injured reserve and not being able to send back to Rochester, Paille's money was greater than the money freed by putting Paul Gaustad on LTIR.

' "Based on all the medical [reports] we have, all the other players will return by the end of the season," Regier said. "If you went and bought different players, even though you could fill with their money, the [injured] players would be ineligible to come back. ...

"The league is suggesting that they're going to have some remedy to that whole process, but nobody knows what that is yet," Regier said. "It did come up last year, but it didn't become a factor because a lot more teams are at the cap this year. While it came up, it was a minor issue compared to where it is now, and it certainly didn't come up with us." ...

"The league's position is they're going to be very vigilant in respect to anyone being injured," Regier said." (TBN)

I just hope Regier and Co. are right. A healthy, or even semi-healthy, Connolly is worth more than any of the players that were acquired today. He's a difference maker, a magical center who fits Buffalo's style like a glove.

Regier was on WGR 550 post-trades, and the most important thing that I heard was that management didn't only look at the numbers on the statsheets when making trades. He said that while they set out to get results on the ice, a lot of that comes from inside the room. With a chemistry so strong in Buffalo, you can only hope that the new guys don't rock the sailing ship.

Regier also addressed what he believed was a "hole" that existed between the seventh and eighth defenseman on the Sabres' depth chart by grabbing Washington's Timo Helbling and Nashville's Mikko Lehtonen. While this might not have been the toughness I had been looking for, it does go to address the defensive parade to the IR that Buffalo incurred last spring.

------------------------------------------

SICK? SICK!: So word on WGR 550 is that Danny Briere is sick. I'll say it Mike, "REALLY?" Are you kidding me? Good time to get the flu, buddy. With no time to call up another American, and Danius Zubrus not around yet, it looks like Derek Roy will be centering our number one line. Followed by Clarke MacArthur's banging second line. And I'm going to stop there. Maybe Darcy should have sought out some depth at forward...

JEALOUS: Ryan Smyth on the Island? So jealous! Every time I hear his name I see him limping off to the dressing room with his teeth scattered on the ice. If this guy's picture isn't next to heart or soul in the dictionary, I'm not sure who's is. He's a kingpin to any playoff run, and he automatically makes the Islanders dangerous in the first round.

Biron to Philly, Sabres pick up Conklin

Per WGR 550 and TSN.ca, Marty Biron was traded to the Philadelphia Flyers for a second or first round draft pick (conflicting information), and then grabbed Ty Conklin from the Columbus Blue Jackets for a draft pick.

What does this mean? Money. The move is obviously all about cap space; Sabres lose $2.1 million+ from Biron and gain only $525,000 from Conklin. And it means that there's more to come; you have to believe Darcy Regier would make this move only if had something else cooking to take up that freed cap space.

One aside -- it seems quite humorous to me how times change. Before the big argument always was that you could never just "give" Biron away for peanuts. He was too valuable. And now, after Buffalo was forced to push all the way to cap due to arbitration and the market this summer, that's exactly what the Sabres did. Just funny when you think about the bankruptcy year...

A few things to consider on Deadline Day

I'm not normally nervous on Deadline Day. Darcy Regier has never been the type of general manager to make a "splash" on the Deadline. He's more the let-me-find-a-great-player-when-we're-not-making-the-playoffs (see Daniel Briere) or please-forget-this-trade-as-soon-as-possible (see Bob Corkum).

But today's a little different. Call it contender syndrome. Call it the cap conundrum. Maybe I'm still in a little shock after seeing Chris Drury's blood splattered on the ice last Thursday. Whatever it is, while many Sabres fans are concerned about dollar signs, I'm boggled down by a few other thoughts today too:

1) Not biology or physics... it's the chemistry, baby!
The mayhem against Ottawa proved once again that the chemistry inside the Buffalo dressing room is second to none. Drew Stafford, a Rochester call-up and not seen as a rough-and-tumbler, leapt into action after Chris Neil nailed Drury. He didn't hesitate; he just started throwing punches. And while Stafford's only played a handful of games, he, like the other call-ups, plays right into the system that is Sabres hockey. The bind is stronger than defensive pairings or Buffalo-Rochester; it's engraved deeply into the organization that begins with Lindy Ruff and ends... who knows where. It continued on the next shift, when all five guys plus Marty Biron defended their captain. You can't teach that in the last couple of weeks of the season. If a guy is brought in, he must be of the personality that isn't going to detract from the chemistry established in Buffalo already. And the guy you take out -- well, that's another issue.

2) This year may be destiny -- or not
TBN columnist Jerry Sullivan was on WGR 550 today, spouting out how Regier must think differently because Buffalo has never won a championship in football or hockey. Thus, since the Sabres are so close, it has to be all about this year. I understand that Drury and Daniel Briere might be out of town after this season due to the economics of the game, but I disagree with anyone who thinks this year they win or that's it. Regier has built a system of young guys not only in the NHL, but also at the minor league level, understanding that in the new NHL there will be turnover. With the cap situation as such, Regier must be careful with the rent-a-player scenarios. He's worked hard to get this group under contract and locked up for the next few years; it may not be worth it to sacrifice one or two young forwards for a veteran for just this playoffs.

3) What the holes were last year at this time
Why did Buffalo eventually lose out last year? The easy answer is that injuries, mostly on defense, cost them a shot at Lord Stanley. But the reality is that rash of injuries, along with this current one, isn't just bad luck (as much as fans try to convince themselves that's the case). This team still lacks toughness and size. While Drury is no doubt gritty in the trenches, and there maybe be few forwards peskier than Derek Roy, no one in the lineup strikes fear in an opposing team. And there is the perception that a team can push Buffalo around and get players off their game. Philadelphia tried last year, and ultimately failed. But injuries continued to pile up. I don't think a fourth-line banger would hurt the cause. And you have to remember that this year's squad is without Mike Grier and Jay McKee, two from last year's crew that took care of a lot of the hitting required to "send a message."

4) The case for Marty Biron
I firmly agreed with Mike Robitaille and Co. that keeping goaltender Biron around this season was the right choice. Goaltending is by far the most important position; why not have depth where it counts most? And Biron's personality seems to perfectly complement Ryan Miller's intense, complex style. But with most of the season behind us, and Buffalo sitting comfortably at the top of the division, Biron's $2 million+ salary weighs heavy. With the recent injuries and the real possibility that Tim Connolly may not return this season, Biron is the obvious choice to help clear cap space. Besides, does any Sabre fan truly believe that Buffalo can win if Miller went down with an injury? Few, I suppose. Regier's difficulty here is the problem that he's faced since last season -- the market just doesn't seem ripe.

I firmly believe the Sabres can win as presently constituted. But no Connolly (or a half-strength Connolly)? A late return from Max? A no-show from Thomas Vanek again? The playoffs aren't fun and games like the regular season has been this season for the Sabres. The pressure's on Regier to make sure that the playoffs this year maybe could be.

Shine for me Stanley

So I've been MIA again for a while, but I'm back for some seventh game ramblings...

-I can't decide whether I'd be more surprised to see Carolina or Edmonton win the Stanley Cup. Carolina seems to be in a freefall after Game Six; they were not competitive in that game, not even its power play could find a goal (which is pretty surprising). I still look at the rosters and think that Carolina is more stacked with talent that Edmonton. But they didn't look like that team in the last two games. It's hard to believe in a team that has failed to win the Stanley Cup for two straight games.

But Edmonton would still be a surprise victor too. Jussi Markkanen has made you forget that playoff standout Dwayne Roloson went out with an injury in Game One. Chris Pronger hasn't dominated this series as he had others. Shawn Horcoff has had a quiet Finals. And don't forget, this is the EIGHTH seed we're talking about it here.

-Most people say that numbers mean nothing. But don't believe them for a second. If Edmonton hopes to win tonight, they would have to overcome these odds:
    -It would be the first time since the 1979 Baltimore Orioles that any team in the major sports has      come back from a 3-1 deficit in a best-of-seven series to win the championship.

    -The 1942 Toronto Maple Leafs are the only other team in NHL history to come back from a 3-1         deficit to win the Stanley Cup.

    -Home teams are 11-2 in Game Seven of the Finals.

-Before the series, I said I wasn't sure who I would cheer for. But as the series wore on (a lot longer than early indications), I've found myself pulling for the Oilers. I think the trigger was the Roloson injury; without him, they seem so much more likable. And please, I'd take Craig MacTavish over Peter Laviolette any day of the week. MacT's expressions on the bench are priceless, and he almost seemed shocked when the Oilers won Game Six. Laviolette still rubs me the wrong way in his press conferences.

-Speaking of Laviolette... I think we should refer to him as the "master of bold moves" from now on. In the first round, he pulls Martin Gerber for Cam (who?) Ward, a 22-year-old who just happens to be the most level-headed person on the planet. Then, in the conference finals, Laviolette deserts his rookie wonder to go back to Gerber. Gerber nabs a shutout, but then gets pulled in the next game for allowing three goals on 11 shots. Ward lost Game Six on a weak goal by Daniel Briere, but Laviolette has since stuck with him.

Laviolette pulled another trick out of his bag in Game Six of the Finals, when Erik Cole suddenly appeared in the lineup after not playing since Mar. 4. He hadn't been taking contact in practice; he had a broken vertebrae in his neck for crying out loud. But there he was, inserted in the lineup for the injured Doug Weight. Cole wasn't bad, but he wasn't good either -- he was falling all over the ice and seemed to have trouble keeping speed (ooh shocker!). It'll be interesting to see how the move pans out in Game Seven.

-I'm conflicted about the chance of Michael Peca winning the Stanley Cup. He was my favorite player for the longest time, and I still admire his game. But the Buffalo break-up was so sour. And Edmonton isn't Buffalo; it seems wrong to see "our" captain win with another team.

Still, Peca holds a spot in Sabres history. He still spends time in Buffalo in the offseason. Remember his comments after Edmonton's controversial goal in Game Three of the Finals? When Ryan Smyth was bulldozing over Cam Ward en route to the winning goal?

"...the 1999 finals, when Peca played for Buffalo and wound up on the wrong side of Dallas' cup-winning goal. He said there's no comparison between that play and Smyth's goal in Game 3.

"Not even close," Peca said. "That was a goal that shouldn't have counted, and it cost us the Stanley Cup." '

That comment reminded me of Rhett Warrener's comment a couple of years back about still having nightmares about the play. And Peca has always embodied the "Buffalo" mentality:

"While you might say the Oilers are following the yellow brick road in their dreams of winning their first Stanley Cup since 1990, Peca discerns an even closer parallel to his hockey role in another movie. It's one of Sylvester Stallone's less memorable films -- Over the Top.

"I identify with the character he plays in that movie the most because he's a small guy who arm-wrestles this giant guy who has never been beaten and wins..." ' (NHL.com)

-One reason to root against Carolina, courtesy of WGR's Jeremy White: save yourself the pain of seeing Rod Brind'amour's face on a magazine cover.

-One reason to cheer for Edmonton: Fernando Pisani. We're all cousins of Little Italy's favorite son. Listen to the "Fernando" song at Edmonton's Team 1260 website.

Playoff predictions: Finals

"No one remembers who came in second. There is no immortality for second best."

Yes, the "My Stanley Cup" commercials are really lame. But hey, the Lance Armstrong-imposed quote is dead on for the Final round. Neither of these teams were meant to be here. Both were picked to struggle to make the playoffs -- and the Edmonton Oilers did. Both cities should find the berth a well-deserved blessing. And whoever wins gets immortality, while the loser... is the loser.

I haven't decided who I'm going to root for yet. Let's be honest -- it's not like I can cheer for the team that beat my favorite team. And Edmonton? If you subtract Michael Peca, Chris Pronger and Dwayne Roloson, I'd love them to death. But those are arguably the three most valuable Oilers in this playoff run. And the pick...

(2) CAROLINA Hurricanes vs. (8) EDMONTON Oilers
Series Breakdown
Carolina (112 pts, 52-22-8), Edmonton (91 pts, 41-28-13)
Season series: Didn't face each other (ugh!)

Before I get on a rant on how every team should play each team in the league at least once, I'm just going to get to it: I'm picking Edmonton to win this thing. Edmonton's goaltending is better. Eric Staal, by far the best forward left in the playoffs, was running out of gas at the end of the Buffalo series. And even if he suddenly reemerges, Chris Pronger and Michael Peca are there. It's not that I don't give Carolina enough credit -- they are a great team, from top to bottom. But Craig MacTavish is bringing the Cup back to Edmonton.

Pick: Edmonton in 6