In The Crease

Detroit: Hockeytown or not? The Freep can't decide

Mitch Albom's column ("Wings come out big, so why don't the fans?") on Wednesday attracted a lot of attention, especially on sports talk radio here in the Motor City.

Albom didn't have any earth-shattering statistics to back up his opinions. They weren't even original — writers took shots at the Red Wings all season as rows of empty seats piled up faster than the $9 tickets sold (the marketing tool the Wings were using to woo fans back).

Those tickets, like the slap-in-the-fan's-face "Joe Bucks" post lockout, didn't work. For the first time in memory, Red Wings are pushing season tickets sales. According to the boxscores, every Wings playoff game in 2008 — unlike 2007 — have been sold out. But there's been empty seats, too many seats to use the excuse that people are in The Olympia Room boozing.

Album summed up his disgust with the fans after Game 1 of the Western Conference Finals against Dallas this way:

"OK. End of lecture. I don't know if those tickets weren't sold (bad) or just not used (worse). I know only that if the Wings win seven more games, if they capture the Cup, if they keep up this excellence and they do it with this many empty seats, we don't deserve the name Hockeytown. And it'll be our loss."

But who would they be losing the title to? Yea, the Minnesota Wild have sold out every season at the Xcel Energy Center. Buffalo tried to grab away the title of Hockeytown, but hockey fizzled slightly there this year. (Maybe once the Bills leave for Toronto that will change...)

But it's increasingly difficult to bill Detroit as Hockeytown. It's not the town it used to be. It's a Tigers-sometimes Pistons-maybe Michigan or Michigan State football-but rarely Lions-and occasionally Hockey-town now.

As a hockey fan, this is troubling. It speaks not only to problems in Detroit, but also the league at large. But more ridiculous than empty seats at playoff time is the story The Detroit Free Press ran the next day on A1:

"Hockeytown is having a rebirth. ...

Thursday night, Joe Louis was nearly full by the end of the first period. A free T-shirt promotion had created long lines at the entrances and the crowd arrived unusually late. Yes, there were empty seats, but nothing like the recent past.

No one is suggesting this team is shoving aside the Hall of Fame-laden squad of 2002 in the pantheon of Detroit's memorable championship runs. That was the year the team had Scotty Bowman as its coach, and players including Yzerman, Brett Hull, Brendan Shanahan, Luc Robitaille, Sergei Fedorov and Dominik Hasek.

But consider: Playoff ticket sales are up by about 1,000 per game compared with last year. The Wings were the No. 1 page on freep.com in April and gathered twice as many page views as the Pistons. They even beat the Lions.

And for the first time in five years, Detroit's FSN affiliate reported an upswing in the ratings. Last year, the station averaged a 3.6 rating during Wings games in the regular season, the lowest in the history of the station. This year, the number jumped 34% to 4.7.

TV ratings for NHL games have jumped 30% across the country on all of FSN's affiliates. Not so stunningly, said Greg Hammaren, FSN Detroit's senior vice president and general manager, the biggest rating came for a Wings game.

'And it's not even close,' he said. 'It's hard not to like this team.'"

This is disgusting. Yes, Albom is a columnist and the aforementioned story ran in the news section. But this feels wrong. The Freep hasn't been immune from the Wings ticket bashing this season. Running that column and then that front page story the next day just reeks of a phone call made from a dark office in Joe Louis Arena to the Free Press brass.

Either way, the jury is still out on whether Detroit still merits being called Hockeytown, USA. It didn't look good yesterday, when Versus TV crews had to round up fans outside the Joe to produce the "crowd" shot you saw before the game. And the storied octopus is oddly thrown from the same spot in the arena at the same point during the anthem every playoff game.

But the Wings are up 2-0 in their series against Dallas. The Tigers are struggling. And the Pistons aren't garnering the same buzz, either. The Lions are still the Lions.

So maybe there is hope for Hockeytown yet.

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SHOW PHILLY SOME BROTHERLY LOVE: I'm not even fighting it any more — I'm a Sabres fan cheering for the Flyers.

Need another reason? Elliotte Friedman just did a Marty Biron profile on "Inside Hockey" prior to Game 2 between Pittsburgh and Philadelphia on CBC. Best quote? Biron, talking about his son, Jacob. His son tells him the same thing before each game — tell Danny Briere to score a goal, have another shutout and bring me home a puck. He talked about Game 1 against Montreal when that didn't happen, and Jacob wouldn't even talk to him.

Great stuff! Sabres fans have to love the Briere-Biron connection; Biron also mentioned how Brian Campbell used to hide his goaltender pads in the locker room, while Marty would hide Campbell's stuff in the ceiling tiles.

In Tom and Larry We Trust?

Buffalo Sabres fans — pretty much any professional sports fans — want desperately to trust their team's front office. Those suits have a lot of say in whether a team wins or loses during the season, postseason and offseason. And just like coaches, they rarely get praise when things go well — usually the players steal the limelight then. But when things go south, poor draft choices, poor trades or poor contract negotiations are to blame.

Most franchises have their share of good and bad. I'm bias, but the Sabres franchise has joined the dark side on more than one occasion in recent memory. Former owner John Rigas is now in jail. The team almost left Buffalo and went through bankruptcy under the watch of Gary Bettman. Buffalo businessman Mark Hamister was supposed to save the franchise, only to back out at the last minute.

Like an angel from heaven, Tom Golisano flew in, bought the franchise and kept the Sabres from fleeing to southern Ontario, Las Vegas... wherever. He also brought in Larry Quinn as managing partner. Quinn, who was president and CEO of the Sabres prior to the Rigas era, "oversaw" the Ted Nolan/John Muckler debacle and was fired when Rigas assumed control. (Not up on Quinn's antics? Business First ran a great feature on him in 2004.)

We didn't know much about Golisano in spring 2003. Now, we know he's a good businessman (Forbes estimates the franchise worth at $162 million, while Golisano reportedly bought the franchise for $92 million). But questions about his hockey decisions came to the forefront once Daniel Briere and Chris Drury skipped town last summer, and Brian Campbell was traded this spring.

When the team went to back-to-back Eastern Conference finals in 2006 and 2007, Golisano was everywhere, always on the jumbotron at Sabres games. This year?

"I’m still wondering who appeared at more Sabres games this season, Drury and Briere or owner Tom Golisano. The guy was absent most of the year before showing up for the team photo Monday (at the end of the season). Apparently, he had other commitments."-columnist Bucky Gleason, The Buffalo News, 4/8/08

And Tuesday, The Toronto Star ran this story:

"Billionaire Jim Balsillie contacted the owner of the Buffalo Sabres about buying the team earlier this season, a sign the Research in Motion co-founder is still seeking an NHL franchise after two previous high-profile flameouts.

Balsillie phoned Sabres owner Tom Golisano around Christmas, according to a source familiar with the matter. Golisano indicated he would be open to selling the club – but not if Balsillie intended to relocate it."

Oh, are you comforted by the fact that he wouldn't sell unless on his own terms? Because yes, there's all these local Western New York buyers waiting around.

True, the validity of this report is suspect. But Golisano's grace period was officially over July 1. Same with Quinn's.

Sabres fans have always had the right to distrust the front office. It's just a shame that trust was broken again so quickly.

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GOOD NEWS: It does exist! In the past two days, Buffalo Sabres general manager Darcy Regier has signed prospects Nathan Gerbe (Boston College) and Feliz Schutz (German Elite League). I know nothing about Schutz. But I personally witnessed Gerbe's greatness at the Frozen Four in Denver this year, and boy, excited is an understatement. Kevin Sylvester has a terrific interview with Gerbe on Sabres.com.

Tim Kennedy (Michigan State) is next on Regier's list. Kennedy, who just finished his junior year, could elect to become a free agent after next season if he cannot agree to terms with the Sabres.

Broad Street Dilemmas

I hate the Flyers. I wasn't around in the Broad Street Bullies days, but it doesn't matter. I had 1997, when I was still a Red Wings fan. I had Legion of Doom. And John Leclair's phantom goal, when Sabres fans learned that scoring through the side of the net is not only legal, but also series-changing.

Even one of my proudest moments as a fan came rooting against the orange and black. Amidst a 10-game winning streak to open the 2006-2007 season, the Sabres destroyed the Flyers, 9-1. Ken Hitchcock fired. Bobby Clarke resigned. Life couldn't get better.

But that was then. Now, former Sabres - former Sabres most fans absolutely LOVED - wear that evil sweater. They get cheered and booed by fans wearing "VENGEANCE NOW" t-shirts.

Despite all this, I'm struggling, as are many other Sabres fans. How can you hate Daniel Briere's face? The one that can't grow a playoff beard. He's leading the playoffs in scoring. When he scored last night to recapture the Flyers' lead, I screamed in agony. But I'm not sure if it was sincere. Because at the same time, it reminded me of Briere scoring against Carolina in Game 6 of the 2006 conference finals, which is as far from Philly hatred as you can get.

And then there's Buffalo-backup-now-Philly-starting-netminder Marty Biron. It's Marty. Goofy, loveable ... he's still the same, but he doesn't wear a goatlord anymore. Oh, and all of a sudden he's the biggest story of the playoffs. He looks borderline cocky (which of course, can't be true, because he's Marty) in the crease, but with good reason. He's been outstanding.

And that's just the Flyers/Habs series. The other Eastern Conference series has not just my favorite ex-Sabre, but pretty much my favorite player of all time, Chris Drury. He looked as if he popped his shoulder out of its socket the last game, but struggled back to play in the third period. In Game 4, I just watched him crouch on the ground to block a shot, cringe with pain, and then skate gingerly to the boards. But then he opens the door and sits on the bench, like nothing happened. Just like when he tied Game 5 with 7.7 seconds to go against the Rangers last year. Same Drury, different jersey.

So here's the dilemma: as sports fans, do we cheer for teams? Or do we cheer for individuals?

Or is it possible to do both without driving yourself crazy?

Fellow Michigan grads say they pick their NFL team based on which one has the most former Wolverines, probably since many Detroit natives couldn't find the strength to root for the Lions. This has always sounded absurd to me. But is it?

Cheering for the Sabres through the dark years, could you really have a favorite player? If you did, they probably left, retired or got traded. You were more worried with losing the TEAM. That's when I became a sports fan in camp one, leaving behind my individual player allegiances. I practically disowned Dominik  Hasek and Michael Peca.

Could there be middle ground? Can you root against the Flyers, yet cheer for Briere and Biron? It seems mathematically impossible. If Biron stops everything and Briere scores, Flyers win. (The Rangers will probably be eliminated this week, if not tonight, so I'm not as concerned with Drury.)

In sports, you can try to control your emotions. But in the end, it's just like love. Your true feelings will show through. I wonder if that's finally happening to me, and if it is, whether I can be a Sabres fan and live with that.

LIVE: Emotions on Trade Deadline Day

Okay, there are too many emotions and thoughts going through my head post-Brian Campbell trade not to blog about it:

12:57: On TSN’s TRADECENTRE, James Duthie looked like he was going to cry post-Brian Campbell interview. Great, now all I need is the broadcasters breaking down, too. That helps.

12:59: Caller on WGR:

“They’ve lost their two best forward and best defenseman in one calendar year. Who does that?”

Thank you. You need to worry about your top guys first (think Detroit’s GM Ken Holland), and then fill in the pieces. Don’t give me bullshit on how we need to save money to sign Paul Gaustad, Jason Pominville, etc. – those are the guys you can fill in. You can’t fill in Chris Drury, Daniel Briere or Brian Campbell. They are the core.

1:03: I so need to eat lunch.

1:17: What happens to the Sabres power play now? Does this mean Dmitri Kalinin automatically gets a much bigger role on the team? Scary. And get ready for the triumphant return of the Nate the not-so-great Paetsch.

1:26: Just realized the Red Wings are playing the Sharks on Friday night. I'm ready to pull my hair out.

Oh, and what happens to the Brian Campbell  sweating commercial?

1:35: Yes, I hate that Campbell was traded. But how can you not be excited about his first Drew Remenda interview on Shark Byte?

Who is going to be the Sabres captain? Shit the Capitals are just picking up tons of people (Cristobel Huet, Sergei Fedorov, Matt Cook).

2:02: Less than an hour left. Have we seen the last from Regier and Co.?

2:15: More talk about the "future" on WGR. Tell me about potential, too. The last two years, it was beautiful to be a Sabres fan because for once in a long time, you could think about the present. Too often, you're left looking to the past, or hoping for the future. You're always being pulled away, plucked from the here-and-now because you just can't stay in the present. It's just too painful.

2:40:

"It was the greatest thing ever for two years ... and now it's gone."                                                                            -Bulldog on WGR 550

Brokenhearted is the word of the day. Of the year. Of the past two years.

3:00: Marian Hossa to Pittsburgh. Wow. Lots of scoring.

Still, Pittsburgh hasn't proved anything past the regular season. They were atrocious in the playoffs last year. Hossa has 35 points in 55 playoff games, all with the Senators. Can Marc-Andre Fleury really rebound for the playoffs? Or is Ty Conklin for real? I'm not placing any bets - the Penguins are young, inexperienced, and I'm not sure how much they learned from the Ottawa series last year except that they had no business being there.

3:22: I thought I could get a lot done today. Stupid. Between WGR 550 and TSN TRADECENTRE, the day is almost gone.

Ken Holland finally makes a move, acquiring Brad Stuart. I used to be a big Stuart supporter back in his San Jose days, but is one of those "potential" guys that never really panned out. Definitely a minor move.

Al Montoya (and Marcel Hossa) land in Phoenix. Interesting collection of Wolverines assembling in the desert, with Hobey Baker-hopeful Kevin Porter and Chad Kolarik joining the squad next year.

3:28: WGR finally got the Campbell audio up. Too bad Sabres.com didn't put video up. I know the official sites are half news, half marketing, but as a Sabres fan, I need time to lament Campbell leaving. Best stuff from the interview:

“I allowed them to call me Soupy, and that was fine."

"The disappointing part is that we didn't bring the prize home to Western New York."

Campbell describing scoring last week in Toronto, and Lindy Ruff subsequently tapping him on the shoulder and smiling, as being one of the best moments in his time in Buffalo.

"I can't sign for a three-year deal like that. You see what happens in the NHL. A person almost lost their life here a couple weeks ago. Life is short."

Keep tabs on the Sabres? "Yea, obviously. The coaching staff, everybody. It goes down the line. Everybody."

Mike Grier, Briere, Drury: "Wish I wasn't in that setup of names there."

"There's still potential in that (Buffalo) locker room."

"I've loved every minute of it, and I hope they enjoyed watching me play.

Don't boo me when I come back. C'mon. That's all. Don't boo me, c'mon."

"I'm a human being. I have friends here. That's basically what it comes down to."

And for a few laughs on Deadline Day: Steve Bernier aka Big Bear introduces himself to the Buffalo fans.

"I'm 22 years old, and I play right wing. I'm 6'2'', 220 pounds."

4:04: Here's another pipe dream: Maybe Buffalo will be so awful without Campbell the rest of the season that Regier/Golisano will have a change in heart about long-term contracts.

The ex-Sabre list: Brian Campbell, Chris Drury, Daniel Briere, Jay McKee, Marty Biron, JP Dumont, Mike Grier...

4:07: Wonder how Ryan Symth is feeling in Colorado. Last year this time, he was the crying player at deadline time. Now it's Campbell on the verge of tears. Wishing there were more Mats Sundins out there, willing and wanting to stay with "their" team. True, Sabres management has royally screwed over players and failed to sign players at the right time, right price. But Campbell ultimately can make the decision to stay, whether it was this morning or July 1.

4:15: Per TSN: number of trades: 23, players: 43, draft picks: 22. Fourth busiest deadline day in NHL history (1-2008, 2-2006, 3-2003).

Mike Schopp: "I think they needed a forward." Yea, that's what happens when you lose Briere, Drury, Zubrus, Grier and Dumont. It's not like they don't need defensemen, either. The pickings on the farm are getting very slim.

Buffalo left with another "next year"

It wasn’t supposed to be this way.

This was the team that was supposed to change the Buffalo sports landscape forever and deliver the championship-starved city a Stanley Cup.

But we were wrong. At least for now.

It was essentially the same team as last year, minus a little grit (Mike Grier, Jay McKee) and scoring (J.P. Dumont), plus a year’s worth of playoff experience and a healthy defensive unit. The one thing that stayed constant was the core, the chemistry — the thing that most Sabres fans believed set this team apart from talented teams of the past.

But even that wasn’t enough to get the Sabres past whatever was ailing them. From the start of the playoffs, they never completely found their groove. One period they had, the next lost it. The power play struggled mightily. One-on-one battles were lost. Desperation wavered. Yet they made it back to the conference finals to finish what they had started last season.

Ottawa was ready. They remembered being eliminated by Buffalo last year. But the Sabres seemed to have forgotten what carried them to the conference finals a season ago. They relied on a Presidents’ Trophy and a quick-strike offense rather than hard work. And even when they did put forth their best effort, the passes weren’t crisp, the defensive coverage wasn’t sound, the confidence lapsed — the cerebral aspect of the game was missing. So when a few bounces didn’t go their way, the series was lost before it ever really began.

Unfortunately for Sabres fans, who rallied around this team in a way even I couldn’t imagine, another long summer lies ahead. Rather than reminiscing about a team that finally brought a championship to Buffalo, they’re left wondering if management can afford to bring back a team that could win it all next year.

Numbers don't lie, and even if they did, it's not over

Thirteen-percent.

That’s the number of teams in NHL history that have successfully returned from a 2-0 deficit to win a series. But don’t bother telling the Buffalo Sabres the odds of beating the Senators. Even as recently as Saturday night, Daniel Briere led another late-game comeback. And how probable was it that he would score with 5.8 seconds left?

What was the probability that four out of its top six defenseman would be knocked out last spring? Or that the Sabres would have won their first 10 games this season?

Try this: how many times has Buffalo won four of five games this season? 35 times. (Thanks to Brad Riter for this stat!) Two of the last four teams that won the Stanley Cup (Detroit—2002, Vancouver and Carolina—2006, Montreal) made the charge back from 2-0, albeit in the first round. Buffalo tied its 2001 series with Pittsburgh, winning twice at the Igloo and Game 5 at HSBC before dropping the final two games — both in overtime.

There’s been many times where the fans (including me), have hesitated, or even stopped believing. But this is the team that taught Buffalo to believe again. To not expect losing and heartbreak go hand-in-hand with being from The Queen City. So I’m still believing. And it’s not over:

Playoff notebook

Since I’ve failed to blog with any regularity, I put together a smorgasbord of off-ice thoughts through two rounds:

-Is it just me or does Madison Square Garden have the most pathetic horn in the entire NHL? It leaves me thinking, “Honey, the buns are ready!” at the end of each period.

-I’ve never liked Ray Emery as a player, but his off-ice antics are annoying, too:

“I’m not a big fan of Buffalo,” Emery said early this week. “There’s not a lot to do on days off.” ...

“He’ll find things to do,” Ruff said with a laugh. “Rent a Hummer truck, go for a ride. Drive around a little bit.” -TBN

Emery had the latest word Wednesday when asked if he'd have anything to say to Ruff if he saw him on the road - Emery quipped he'd greet him with a little ‘nudge.’ ” –CP

Don’t worry, Ray. WIVB has called fans to help him find something to keep him busy in Western New York. The best suggestions so far? “Go to a driving school!” and “Have you ever heard of a little place called Niagara Falls? I'm sure that they can find a barrel big enough to fit your ego.”

-Most hockey players have superstitions, but I doubt most involve a newspaper’s beat reporter:

"Ales Kotalik just one day asked me how my coffee was, I said it was delicious and we left at that. Then that night he scored two goals," said [TBN's Tim] Graham.

"I see him the next day and he says 'Timmy how's the coffee?' And as soon as he asked me that, I knew what he was talking about, and I said it was delicious and he kind of laughed about it and then went out and had a goal and an assist."

Says Kotalik, "It was always when he was holding a Dunkin' Donuts coffee that I had a good game, so I kind of told him make sure you have it before every game."

Check out the video here.

-Yes, Buffalo is crazy for the playoffs:

“I think [Sabres] fever is hot when I drive by the Catholic church near my house, and it doesn’t list the Mass times or the inspirational message,” Sabres public relations director Michael M. Gilbert said. “It says, ‘Go Sabres.’ ” –TBN

I also like the “Welcome to Pominville” sign on Rt. 33.

-Oh, and it’s not just Buffalo. It’s also Buffalo’s collection of fans around the globe. I’m listening to WGR right now, and people have called in everywhere from England to South Africa. Especially here in Detroit, people complain about those “late” west coast games. What if you’re a Sabres fan living across the ocean where the games don’t START until 1 a.m.? Now that’s dedication!

-Even the New York Times is taking notice of Buffalo's obsession:

"On Versus, Buffalo has the highest ratings and the most viewers. 'The Buffalo fans are a force of nature,' said Gavin Harvey, the president of Versus. 'We crushed ‘American Idol’ up there.'

In Game 4, Buffalo had a 24.8 rating from Versus, accounting for 158,000 households. Meanwhile, New York did a 1.5, the highest ever for a hockey game on Versus in that market. In Detroit, which appropriated the nickname Hockeytown in 1996, then backed it up by selling out 452 consecutive home games and winning the Stanley Cup three times, has failed to sell out its first five playoff home games this year. That has caused some hand-wringing in the Motor City, but it may be premature to cede top status to Buffalo and the Sabres."

-I’m begging Larry Quinn: Please get rid of the white pom pons! Doesn't he realize home teams wear COLOR now? And am I the only one that thinks HSBC is less enthusiastic about pom pons than other hockey-crazed cities?

-It’s no secret that Hockeytown has failed to sell out any of its playoff games. Living in Detroit, I have to chuck it up to the economy. With such a large corporate season ticket base and the decimation of the auto industry, businesses and its employees don’t have the disposable income to spend on Red Wings tickets, which are much higher than Pistons playoff tickets or the hottest ticket in town — the Detroit Tigers. Free Press columnist (and former Michigan Daily EIC) Michael Rosenberg wrote about the struggle to sell out:

“I don't blame people for staying home. People can spend their money however they'd like. It is just too bad that Mike Ilitch has chosen to alienate his fan base like this, by acting like the economy is still thriving and the Wings are still the only winner in town.

In the last few years, we have seen the state unemployment rate rise, the Pistons become one of the best franchises in sports, the Tigers make the World Series, Steve Yzerman retire and the Wings' payroll drop from almost $78 million in 2004 to $44 million this year. Yet the Wings expect fans to open the checkbook as they did in 2002.”

-Isn’t it funny how Ryan Miller sounds more and more like Chris Drury in his interviews? “It’s just a hockey game, it doesn’t matter who the opponent it is, I’m just focused on the game…”

-I was listening to the "60s on 6" channel on XM Radio this past Tuesday while driving to work. A Sabres fan called up, and he requested  "A Wonderful Dream" by The Majors, in honor of the Senators matchup. Pretty sweet.

-Best quote of the playoffs thus far, courtesy of TBN columnist Bucky Gleason: “Drury’s heart never skips a beat when everybody else is ready to drop dead.” Of course, it was in reference to Drury’s game-tying goal with 7.7 second remaining in Game Five against the Rangers. Rick Jeanneret’s call was great, too: “Who else? Who else?”

Playoff predictions: Round 1

They're back. I'm not ready. But it's time.

Eastern Conference
(1) BUFFALO Sabres vs. (8) NEW YORK Islanders
Series Breakdown
Buffalo (113 pts, 53-22-7), New York (92 pts, 40-30-12)
Season series: Sabres (3-1)
Let’s face it — Buffalo has been the number one team in the league for the majority of the regular season, playing a large chunk of that time with an AHL-laden roster. Now they’re completely healthy, minus Paul Gaustad. They shouldn’t have trouble dealing with an Islanders team that stumbled into the playoffs on the last day of the regular season. The only way that I even see the Isles grabbing a game in this series is a miraculous comeback from Rick DiPietro, or if New York can draw Buffalo into a special teams game (and Tim Connolly’s return somehow has absolutely no affect on the power play). That’s a lot of if’s just to win a game. Buffalo should have this series easy.
Pick: Buffalo in 5

(2) NEW JERSEY Devils vs. (7) TAMPA BAY Lightning
Series Breakdown
New Jersey (107 pts, 49-24-9), Tampa Bay (93 pts, 44-33-5)
Season series: Tied (2-2)
Barring some crazy injury to Martin Brodeur, the Devils have a clear edge in this series. Tampa Bay has been up and down all season, while this has been one of Brodeur’s best — and maybe Hart-worthy — seasons. Lou Lamoriello’s head games are nothing new, so I don’t think the coaching change will throw the Devils off. Also, what’s made the Devils remarkable is how their defensemen, especially Brad Lukowich and Colin White, have really adjusted their game to become effective in the new NHL. Tampa Bay? No goaltending. Simple.
Pick: New Jersey in 4

(3) ATLANTA Thrashers vs. (6) NEW YORK Rangers
Series Breakdown
Atlanta (97 pts, 43-28-11), New York (94 pts, 42-30-10)
Season series: Thrashers (3-1)
Without a doubt, this is the series I’m least interested in, even though the league is probably very interested (just for TV ratings sake). While Kari Lehtonen has the ability to steal games on his own, I think New York’s offense combined with Henrik Lundqvist’s goaltending should be able to stop the Southern boys — even if it takes a while to do so.
Pick: New York in 6

(4) OTTAWA Senators vs. (5) PITTSBURGH Penguins
Series Breakdown
Ottawa (105 pts, 48-25-9), Pittsburgh (105 pts, 47-24-11)
Season series: Penguins (3-1)
This series has the potential to be the most exciting of the first round, emphasis on potential. Both teams favor an end-to-end style and have great, young offensive talent up front (think Dany Heatly, Sidney Crosby, Jason Spezza, Evgeni Malkin). And while Ottawa may be ranked fourth, its been playing its best hockey in the second half, much like Pittsburgh. But the playoffs are entirely different. You can remind Ottawa of playoff years past (see: Buffalo) with early series wins. Or you can remind Pittsburgh that they’ve never been here. I think one of the NBC commentators said it best: “Ottawa’s bad experience is better than Pittsburgh’s none.” Maybe that’s true, but Ottawa’s lack of playoff success and the possibility of shaky goaltending should balance out Pittsburgh’s youthful naivety of playing in the postseason and make for a long series.
Pick: Pittsburgh in 7

Western Conference
(1) DETROIT Red Wings vs. (8) CALGARY Flames
Series Breakdown
Detroit (113 pts, 50-19-13), Calgary (105 pts, 43-29-10)
Season series: Tied (2-2)
Will the Red Wings be again haunted by Alberta? Perhaps. And it will be tough for Detroit, who could be without Henrik Zetterberg and Niklas Kronwall. However, this Red Wings team is different than last season; there’s no more reliance on a crippled Steve Yzerman or worn-out-his-welcome Brendan Shanahan. Now there’s Todd Bertuzzi (to protect seven-year Pavel Datsyuk) and Dominik Hasek getting shutouts left and right. The Flames, much like the Islanders, stumbled their way into the playoffs after a late surge by the Avalanche. They have the offense, the defense, and the goaltending — but will they have it away from the Saddledome? And can they beat the Dominator? More questions than answers make this a longer series, but it should result in Detroit’s favor.
Pick: Detroit in 6

(2) ANAHEIM Ducks vs. (7) MINNESOTA Wild
Series Breakdown
Carolina (110 pts, 48-20-14), Buffalo (114 pts, 48-26-8)
Season series: Tied (2-2)
This has the possibility to be the most boring first-round series. By far. I haven’t been able to get into either of these teams this year. Anaheim has its dynamic duo on defense, Scott Niedermeyer and Chris Pronger, and always has Teemu Selanne. But the Wild have possibly the best coach in the playoffs, Jacques Lemaire. Well, I know I won’t be watching that much, but I’m leaning toward Anaheim here based on personnel.
Pick: Anaheim in 6

(3) VANCOUVER Canucks vs. (6) DALLAS Stars
Series Breakdown
Vancouver (105 pts, 49-26-7), Dallas (107 pts, 50-25-7)
Season series: Tied (2-2)
One of the best parts of the first round is the chance to see Roberto Luongo fight for the Stanley Cup for the first time. Night in and out, Luongo backstopped the Canucks to victory and made them a playoff team once again. And who doesn’t love Alain Vigneault? With Dallas, it’s always about Marty Turco: he has the great regular season numbers, and even NCAA championships, but he’s never had his A-game in the NHL’s second season. I’m not a believer that the Stars will shine.
Pick: Vancouver in 5

(4) NASHVILLE Predators vs. (5) SAN JOSE Sharks
Series Breakdown
Nashville (110 pts, 51-23-8), San Jose (107 pts, 51-26-5)
Season series: Predators (3-1)
If Pittsburgh vs. Ottawa is the most exciting series in the East, Nashville vs. San Jose definitely gets the billing in the West. From an offensive standpoint, both teams bring it in waves: Paul Kariya, Peter Forsberg, Joe Thornton, Patrick Marleau. Nashville narrowly missed winning the Western Conference. While neither of these teams deserves a first-round exit, I think the goaltending tandem of Evgeni Nabokov and Vesa Toskala is the difference in this series.
Pick: San Jose in 6

You don't know Jack (yet)

I wish I were in Los Angeles tonight. While it's starting to feel like playoff weather here in Ann Arbor, Michigan's finest hockey player isn't gearing up for the Frozen Four as the Yost faithful had hoped. Instead, Jack Johnson is making his debut tonight for the Kings and foregoing his final two years of college hockey.

Not that I blame him. It's not an understatement to say Johnson is the biggest thing to happen to Kings hockey since Wayne Gretzky departed Edmonton for the California sun. There's the t-shirts (Kill Jack Kill and JMFJ -- take a wild guess what that means). And there's the endless loop of videos on YouTube, a reel of hope for playoff-less fans:

LAK fans, you really don't know what you're getting into. After the Al Montoyas and Eric Nystroms left Michigan, Johnson was the face of Michigan hockey. He embodies what hockey markerters crave most -- scoring, hitting, and charisma to boot. And he's kind of an asshole, but in an adorable way. Piss him off? Canadian fans tried. He loves that; it just gives him more reason to punish your team on the ice.

A few quick ones about JMFJ:

• Last season, in a game up at Michigan State's Munn Ice Arena, Johnson was hit near the Spartan bench. As he came crashing down, his stick flung up and almost took off the heads of a few Spartans,  including head coach Rick Comley. Careless use? Or just a little Jack for you?
• In a 4-0 blanking of Alaska Fairbanks last season at Yost, Johnson got into a team-wide tussel which landed five Wolverines in the penalty box with less than minute to go in the game. But he didn't just sit in the penalty box; he led his teammates in playing tic-tac-toe through the dust on the glass, and wrote "Go Blue."
• Scared of the hitting? That smirk? How about that shot? Here, Johnson almost ripped the head off of Boston College's goaltender with an absolute rocket.

• I also won't soon forget his heroics against Sweden in the World Junior Championships this year. The U.S. faced elimination going into the last round robin game against Sweden, and gave up a game-tying goal with just 14 seconds remaining in the third. Who made sure the U.S. didn't go home empty-handed? Jack. He scored a power play tally in overtime to allow the U.S. to continue on and eventually take home the bronze medal.
• It's not just about Jack, either. It's the whole Johnson family that took over Yost for two years. Who can miss younger brother Kenny, who seemed too preoccupied with running up and down the bleachers at Yost in a mini Jack jersey to even notice his brother playing on the ice. And fans didn't leave their seats in the second intermission. When the Pep Band blasted the Blue Brothers theme, Jack Sr. got his groove on, eliciting chants of 'Mr. Johnson, Mr. Johnson' from the student section. Wonder if that will become a Staples Center tradition...

Is he ready for the NHL? Yes. His skills are obviously there, and he doesn't take the excessive penalties that he did freshman year. He's just itching to make a difference. And tonight's the first time we get to watch if he can do it in Hollywood.

Conspiracy theories

I'm not one of those fans panicking, whining about how Teppo Numminen's age is finally showing or how Ryan Miller is slumping. I'm too busy wondering how a team that should have been reinvigorated by the return of its captain, Chris Drury, had two of its most pathetic outings of the season in a row this week.

This is the same team that had captured 23 of their last possible 28 points without a third of its lineup. They didn't have Max Afinogenov, Tim Connolly, Ales Kotalik, and then lost Chris Drury to a vicious Chris Neil hit. The team looked more like the Rochester Americans than the Buffalo Sabres, but they managed to pile of up the points and score like crazy. Last week, the Sabres scored 17 goals in three games. And now, just three goals in two games.

But it wasn't just the lack of finish. Buffalo's looked a little uninspired. Bucky Gleason in today's TBN:

"Here’s a word that hasn’t been tossed around in a few years: boring. Looking for another? Sloppy. Another? Ugly. If you didn’t know any better Friday night, you would have thought the Buffalo Sabres revisited the forgettable 2002-03 season rather than being energized by starting back-to-back home games for the first time in eight years."

The team looked disorganized, like a turnover machine, and couldn't make the passes that make them the most dangerous offensive team in the league.

Even more puzzling was Lindy Ruff's decision to start Miller Friday night against the Minnesota Wild. All week, it seemed Ruff had Ty Conklin penciled in for his first start with his new team. But suddenly, Friday came and Miller, who has a history of getting tired, got the nod for his 11th straight appearance. Tonight, Miller has to play against New Jersey. The Devils are just three points behind the Sabres for first overall in the Eastern Conference. And now, the Sabres have dropped to third overall in the league behind Detroit and Nashville.

The mixture of no Conklin and Drury's return doesn't equal up to what's happened on the ice. I almost wonder if Ruff and the team know something the fans don't. Are Afinogenov and Connolly still coming back eventually? Or has there been some injury news the team is hiding from the media? This week, it came out that Connolly still isn't improving:

"Connolly’s leg, however, still hurts. He hasn’t been on the ice and nobody knows when he will be. Sabres coach Lindy Ruff has figured Connolly will need six weeks to get into game shape. Four weeks remain in the regular season.

"When you look at a week to 10 days, that wasn’t going to be that big of a setback," Ruff said after Thursday morning’s practice in HSBC Arena. “When you go beyond that, it’s a setback. . . . We were making good progress. Right now, we’re not making any progress." ' (TBN, 3/9/07)

So call me crazy, but maybe the team knows something we don't. This is still the same team that went on the hot streak, that shocked the league with its NHL-leading play with and AHL-looking roster. It's gotta be a problem between their ears. I just hope that I'm wrong; maybe it's just a freak occurrence. And I still can't explain the Miller start on Friday. Let's just hope we won't be kept wondering after tonight.